REGION – In the 2027 edition of “The Old Farmer’s Almanac”, you’ll find a list of weather phobias, including chionophobia, the fear of snow, and cryophobia, the fear of cold. Sullivan County’s chionophobic and cryophobic residents should consider heading South before December, because the Almanac’s predictions spell trouble for those weary of a cold, snowy winter.

The Almanac, which analyzes solar activity and weather patterns, used the earth’s periodic 11-year cycle of solar activity to predict that diminishing solar activity may be associated with colder temperatures in the coming winter: “Solar cycle 25 is past-peak and solar activity is waning. High levels of solar activity have historically been associated with warmer temperatures on average, although the relationship has become weaker.” It states that global oscillation forces “may cause the polar vortex to displace southward this winter, sending cold air from across Canada south into the U.S.”

From Central New England through the Appalachians, the Almanac expects above normal snowfall and below normal winter temperatures, “with the coldest periods in early and mid-January.” It predicts that late December, mid-January, and early March will be the snowiest periods.

Based on averages from 1991-2020 for a light freeze (29-32 degrees Fahrenheit), the Almanac predicts October 11 for the first fall frost in Syracuse, NY, the closest listed city to Sullivan County.

How does The Old Farmer’s Almanac predict the weather?

The Almanac states: “We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this almanac, Robert B. Thomas in 1792.” Thomas, whose work was influenced by Ben Franklin’s earlier Poor Richard’s Almanack, believed that magnetic storms on the surface of the sun called sunspots influenced the weather on Earth. To make weather predictions today, the Almanac says it uses a refined process that incorporates solar science, climatology, and meteorology. “We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.” Few people have seen the Almanac’s secret weather prediction formula, which is kept in a black tin box at the Almanac offices in Dublin, New Hampshire, according to published reports.

How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?

“We believe that nothing in the universe happens haphazardly and that there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena. However, although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, our results are almost always very close to our traditional claim of 80%,” the Almanac states.

However, an independent study of five years of forecasts by University of Illinois Atmospheric Science Professor John E. Walsh published in 2010 found that approximately 50% of its monthly temperature and precipitation predictions were accurate. The paper states that “The Almanac’s forecasting methodology is not documented with the utmost of professional rigor.”