Now that the kids are back in school, the Jets and Giants are back to losing, and we’re back to everything pumpkin spice, I bet you’re wondering what kind of a winter we’re in for.

Oh, I’m sorry, am I rushing things a bit? 

The official start of Fall is still more than a week out. Plenty of time later to wonder and worry about winter.

Sure, go ahead, tell yourself that. Plenty of time.

Go watch the leaves change.

I’ll watch for snow to fall.

Think I’m exaggerating?

Or maybe I know something?

Ah, suddenly you realize this stretch of 70 degrees won’t last much longer. You woke up the other day to the low-40s. Now you’re thinking maybe it’s time to check that pellet supply. While you’re at it, look for the ice scraper. Yep, it’s coming. Before you know it.

At least that’s what I keep seeing every time I look at my phone. 

Farmer’s Almanac predicts a “Chill, Snow, Repeat” winter. A season of cold, frequent snow and potentially early and late winter conditions. They’re talking serious chills and cold snaps with a widespread winter mix that could start before the winter solstice (December 21) and linger into April.

They say the Northeast could experience a super cold. Something they call “refrigernation.”

That’s right. Refrigernation. Is this the Old Farmer’s Almanac or a threat by Mr. Freeze?

What, polar vortex is too subtle?

Before you start padding the thermal underwear, consider these are the same folks who predicted we’d be socked by a wet summer. I’m not complaining, but it didn’t seem all that wet to me.

Searching for a second opinion, I checked the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, a pretty cool name – no pun intended.

They suggest near-normal temperatures and precipitation across much of the Northeast.  I like that. 

However, they also advise us to prepare for potential cold snaps, as some models suggest that an evolving La Niña could result in periods of colder weather. Of course, things can always change, so we should periodically review the latest updates with the Climate Prediction Center for more accurate information.

How’s that for couching your prediction.

The folks who predict the weather are suggesting that they’re really not ready to predict a full winter forecast, given that winter is a few months off. Get back to them in November and December, maybe early January, and they’ll have a much better idea what winter will be like. 

You know what, check back with me in January, and if I’m trying to shovel out from a foot of snow and we’re in the single digits, you’ll know we had a cold snap with some precipitation.   

In April, I thought the Mets had an above-average chance at winning the World Series. I just checked back at the standings now that the season is nearly over, I realize they have a pretty iffy chance just to make the playoffs. See how that works. It’s easier to predict something the closer you are to when something is supposed to happen.

Years ago I interviewed a senior associate editor for the Almanac who gave me the well-rehearsed line about the Almanac being around since 1792 and that they use meteorology, climatology and solar science to make their predictions. She noted they are 67 percent accurate.

Given all that, my totally untrained meteorological advice is to really enjoy these last days of summer, prepare to start picking up leaves soon after that have the snowblower handy.

Winter will be here before you know it.

How’s that for a prediction.

Barry Lewis is a longtime journalist and author who lives with his wife Bonnie in the Town of Neversink. He can be reached at      barrylewisscdemocrat@gmail.com.