Economic Summit paints optimistic picture

“Overall business [environment] is not too bad. The U.S. balance sheets are in excellent shape. People have money and they’re spending it.””

Gus Scacco

MONTICELLO – “We are not in a recession. We are slower [than normal] but it’s not a recession,” Gus Scacco, Chief Investment Officer and CEO of Hudson Valley Advisors told the 150 government and business leaders last Thursday.

The event was the Sullivan County Partnership for Economic Development’s Economic Development Summit at Resorts World Catskills.

Scacco went on to say, “The economy is actually doing well. Seventy percent of the economy is services – that is what our economy is built on.”

According to Scacco, the volatility in today’s markets is based on several key reasons, including tariffs.

“Trade uncertainly has gone parabolic,” Scacco said. “The word tariff was used by 259 companies out of 500 during their conference calls.”

He also noted that the word ‘recession’ was at a “10-year low” on those same conference calls.

“Overall business [environment] is not too bad,” he said. “The U.S. balance sheets are in excellent shape. People have money and they’re spending it.”

Technology is still the top in earnings growth, according to Scacco, who noted that nine of the ten largest companies in America are technology based. 

“Healthcare is next,” he said.

He pointed out that “sentiment is bad but I expect it to turn.

“Interest rates are really important to the economy,” he said. “Interest rates are going up because we are not in a recession. We are in an inflation.

“Coming out of COVID we are starting to normalize,” Scacco noted. “Supply and demand are in a much better place.

“Older Americans are sitting on a lot of assets and they are going to spend them,” Scacco noted. “Housing rental prices are coming down. Employment in government was increased 25 percent during the past years and that is starting to unwind as we speak.

“All I can tell is business is OK,” Scacco offered.

Open for Business

Keynote Speaker for the Summit was Jeff Janiszewski, Senior VP, Strategic Business Development at Empire State Development who talked about “The View from Albany.”

Janiszewski explained that New York State has come a long way since 1994, when “two semiconductor contracts made their decision without even a visit to New York.”

In trying to figure out what happened, Janiszewski said the state economic development leaders realized, “It can’t be this painful to say ‘yes’ to New York. It used to be that it took 28 months from decision [to move here] to a shovel in the ground,” he said.

Today that timeframe has been cut dramatically as state and local officials work on the “nuts and bolts” to make sure sites have pre-approvals and are shovel ready.

“We have to prepare for success,” he said. “Governor Kathy Hochul is very pro economy. She is calling on companies personally to come to New York.”

And today, the state is spending hundreds of millions on various programs designed to promote business and create jobs.

“Empire State Development has awarded $232 million to economic develpment agencies around the state to prepare sites for development,” Janiszewski said. “And $20 million of that came to Sullivan County for the Route 17 Corridor Project.”

And now, New York may also start creating “power ready sites” as more an more companies require greater energy to run their business.

“Power Up is a $300 million program that is in the state budget which would fund electric capacity to create these power ready sites.

“It’s a crucial tool for business attraction,” he said. 

“Sullivan County is very fortunate to have Marc Baez (as the President and CEO of the Partnership,” Janiszewski said. “He is aggressive and progressive.”

Baez noted that while Sullivan County has seen its own share of problems recently, including the announced closure of the PepsioCo plant in Liberty, new companies coming in will hopefull fill the void.

Baez noted that several companies have already expressed interest in the Liberty facility unemployment in Sullivan County currently stands at 4.1 percent, which is .1 percent lower than a year ago.

Baez pointed to Liberty and Thompson, especially Supervisors Frank DeMayo and Bill Rieber, who “are leaders in their communities who don’t take things for granted.

“They have helped us identify sites and get approvals [for new business],” Baez said. “We are a big tourism county and we are trying to attract other businesses to balance things out.

“We need ratables to stabilize the costs and atrract other investors,” he said.