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Winter predictions

Jim Boxberger
Posted 8/4/23

So after last week’s hot and humid weather, this nice dry cooldown was much appreciated. But wait, it’s August and I had to put on the heat in my car on the way to work on Wednesday when …

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Garden Guru

Winter predictions

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So after last week’s hot and humid weather, this nice dry cooldown was much appreciated. But wait, it’s August and I had to put on the heat in my car on the way to work on Wednesday when it was just forty-nine degrees. This was more like late September temperatures rather than August and it got me thinking of what the coming winter may be like. The Old Farmer’s Almanac will be out later this month and wolly bear caterpillars will start showing up soon, and I will be interested to see if they think like I do that this winter is going to be snowier and colder than any winter we have seen in the recent past. 

Now I am no meteorologist, but I have learned over my years to look for signs in nature that will give clues to what is to come if you know what to look for. The first thing I noticed this summer is that nut trees are baring heavily with nuts. I have a hazelnut tree that is loaded with nuts this year. Unfortunately, I never get to harvest them as between the deer and the squirrels the tree will get stripped about a week before the nuts are fully ripe. Likewise I have a few beech trees that are loaded with beechnuts. These tiny nuts are too small for deer, but chipmunks and mice will gather these up and store them for the winter ahead. 

I also had a few large oak trees taken down that were overhanging our house and these oaks where loaded with acorns as well. This is mother nature’s way of letting her wildlife know to plan ahead and here are the supplies to do it. Okay, you’re saying, that’s nuts and you would be right, here are the other reasons for my prediction. Those Canadian wildfires that have blanketed us in smoke all summer are still burning. The square miles that have been burnt so far now exceed the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined filling the atmosphere with small smoke particles called condensation nuclei that seed the clouds to produce rain. 

July was one of the wettest months we have had this year, but as we move into fall and the nighttime temperatures start to fall, it is the forest canopy that helped to hold in the heat so that we don’t cool down quickly. Well now the forest canopy in Canada is gone, and there is nothing to help hold in the heat and it will be lost at a much faster rate through the months of September and October. As hot as the country and the world were this summer, by the time we get to the end of the year our average global temperature always comes back down to be within a half a degree from our fifty year rolling average. So logic would say that we are going to need some colder temperatures to bring our global temperature back in line. To that end, I expect to see snow for Halloween and about six to eight inches of snow on the ground by Thanksgiving. 

The winter will be snowier for the same reason that July was so rainy, there will still be more condensation nuclei to help produce snow just like the rain in July. By the time we get to January this winter you’ll be wishing we had that hot and humid weather from July. Plan ahead, mother nature is giving the signs.

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